Tesla’s decision to allocate limited Cybercab output exclusively to its internal Robotaxi fleet, rather than retail customers, underpins the 78.5% market-implied odds against a qualifying $30,000-or-lower sale by December 31. Production at Gigafactory Texas began in early 2026 using the unboxed process, yet volumes remain modest with only hundreds of units registered and operating unsupervised paid rides in Austin, now expanding to Dallas. No MSRP, configurator, or retail delivery timeline has been published, while NHTSA continues reviewing self-certification for the steering-wheel-free vehicle. Musk’s earlier sub-$30k target and end-of-year customer delivery comments face a narrow remaining window amid slow ramp and fleet-priority economics. The October 21 earnings call offers the final near-term catalyst before resolution.