**SpaceX has repeatedly demonstrated reliable Super Heavy booster captures using the Mechazilla tower’s mechanical “chopsticks” arms, most recently on a high-profile uncrewed flight where the booster returned and was plucked from the sky minutes after launch.** These successes validate the core catch hardware, actuators, and control systems, yet the lighter, faster-reentering Starship upper stage has only achieved precise ocean splashdowns so far. Ship 40’s July 2026 soft landing was precise enough that Elon Musk stated it would have met catch criteria, clearing a key engineering gate. Ground testing with unflown vehicles has confirmed arm alignment, pushers, and quick-disconnect interfaces. Flight 14 achieved orbital insertion and Starlink V3 deployment but ended with a splashdown rather than a tower attempt. Musk announced on October 13, 2026, that Flight 15—targeted for roughly four to six weeks later, around mid-to-late November—will attempt the first orbital-class Ship catch if conditions allow. Upcoming catalysts include final vehicle checkout, FAA licensing, and any last-minute hardware or software adjustments. Traders price near-term deadlines (e.g., October 31) as low-probability because the next realistic window sits after that date, while longer horizons reflect growing confidence from booster heritage and recent landing accuracy, tempered by the inherent risks of first-attempt orbital recovery.