**The primary driver of trader sentiment on whether SCOTUS grants certiorari in a sports event contracts case is the deepening circuit split and mounting amicus pressure on New Jersey’s September 2026 petition (No. 26-299) in the Kalshi litigation.** The Third Circuit held that Kalshi’s contracts qualify as swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, preempting state gambling laws, while the Sixth and Ninth Circuits reached the opposite conclusion. Recent filings have intensified the case for review: forty state attorneys general and the NFL submitted amicus briefs in early October 2026 urging the Court to resolve the jurisdictional conflict between CFTC oversight and state authority. Kalshi’s response is due November 9, 2026. Traders are weighing the likelihood of a grant amid these signals against the Court’s discretion to await further percolation or a solicitor general recommendation.