Recent bilateral negotiations between the Trump administration and Beijing, including the late September 2026 Trump-Xi summit and resulting “30-for-30” framework, have produced reciprocal tariff reductions on approximately $60 billion in non-sensitive goods, shifting many items toward most-favored-nation rates. A series of trade truces first established in 2025 and extended through November 2026 (with further prolongation to January 2027 under discussion) have paused higher reciprocal duties while preserving core Section 301 tariffs, strategic-sector increases, and a 12.5 percent forced-labor duty. These steps have lowered the effective average rate from earlier peaks above 30 percent toward the low-to-mid teens. With the December 31, 2026 resolution date falling shortly after the current truce deadline, traders assign the highest probability to the 5–15 percent band, reflecting expectations that incremental cuts and extensions will stabilize rates in that range absent major new escalations.