Lula faces a long-vacant STF seat following Luís Roberto Barroso’s early retirement in October 2025, after the Senate rejected his initial nominee Jorge Messias in April 2026 by a 42-34 vote—the first such rejection in over a century. With the second round of the 2026 presidential election approaching and Lula trailing Flávio Bolsonaro, the president retains authority to name a successor before his term ends, subject to Senate confirmation by an absolute majority of 41 votes. Recent reporting indicates Lula is weighing a post-runoff announcement of a centrist candidate, such as Rodrigo Pacheco, to secure approval under the current Senate composition and reduce vacancies available to the incoming administration. Senate dynamics, potential rule changes floated by both candidates, and the compressed timeline before any transition remain the dominant variables for any announcement.