**SpaceX achieved a major milestone with Starship Flight 14 on September 28, 2026, when the vehicle reached Earth orbit for the first time and deployed 26 operational Starlink V3 satellites, despite an early Raptor vacuum engine shutdown that shortened the mission.** The Super Heavy booster has now been tower-caught multiple times in prior tests, while the upper-stage Ship completed controlled reentry and splashdown. These steps build directly on incremental gains in heat shield performance, engine reliability, and booster recovery. Traders see the 76.5% implied probability for full reusability (both stages recovered and reflown, ideally via tower catch) before 2028 as driven by SpaceX’s rapid iteration pace and Elon Musk’s statements targeting a Ship catch attempt on Flight 15, an upper-stage reflight by early 2027, and operational full reuse during 2027. Expansion to Florida launch sites, planned orbital propellant transfer demonstrations, and the company’s track record of compressing timelines support this consensus. Remaining technical hurdles include demonstrating a reusable Ship heat shield after orbital flight, achieving consistent tower catches for the upper stage, and proving rapid turnaround without extensive refurbishment. No major regulatory or technical roadblocks have emerged recently, and the orbital capability milestone has reinforced trader confidence that the 2027 target remains achievable.