Elon Musk's birth outside the United States creates a constitutional barrier under Article II, which limits the presidency to natural-born citizens and makes any formal announcement before 2027 improbable. Traders reflect this reality in the 96.9 percent probability assigned to "No," consistent with historical patterns where eligibility questions have deterred similar candidacies. No recent official statements, campaign filings, or party maneuvers from Musk have signaled intent to test the requirement through announcement alone. Scenarios that could still shift odds include an unexpected constitutional amendment process advancing rapidly or a major reinterpretation by the Supreme Court, though both remain distant within the timeframe. Late developments such as new legal opinions or Musk's direct public declarations would represent the primary catalysts capable of moving the market before resolution.