SpaceX has conducted just three Starship flights in 2026 to date—two suborbital V3 tests and the September 28 orbital debut on Flight 14 that deployed 26 Starlink V3 satellites—reflecting persistent multi-month gaps driven by Raptor engine reliability fixes, booster landing issues, and FAA licensing. With Flight 15 now targeted no earlier than early-to-mid November and Flight 16 a possible December addition at best, hardware production rates, turnaround testing, and current regulatory limits around 25 annual Starbase launches continue to constrain cadence. These realities anchor trader consensus around four to six total flights reaching space for the year, while the slim odds for seven or more acknowledge the potential for one extra test if recent orbital progress accelerates recovery and approvals.