Trader consensus reflected in the 98.8% market-implied odds for no human moon landing in 2026 stems primarily from NASA's February 2026 program restructuring, which converted Artemis III into a 2027 low-Earth orbit docking rehearsal with commercial landers and shifted the first crewed lunar landing to Artemis IV in 2028. Recent milestones, including solid rocket booster stacking for the SLS and Artemis II's successful April 2026 flyby, confirm steady progress on NASA-controlled elements, yet SpaceX Starship and Blue Origin lander development continue facing documented technical delays and schedule slips per inspector general reports. While private-sector acceleration or unforeseen regulatory shifts could theoretically compress timelines, the absence of any verified 2026 landing architecture or hardware readiness sustains the strong sentiment against an outcome this year.