No qualifying bolide of 5 kilotons or greater has been recorded through mid-October 2026, driving the market-implied odds of “No” to 84 percent. NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA monitoring confirm no tracked near-Earth objects on collision courses capable of delivering that energy, while historical bolide data show events at or above this threshold occur irregularly, averaging roughly once every 1–2 years. Meter-scale objects detected in 2026, such as 2026 RW1 and 2026 JN4, produced far smaller airbursts. Continuous fireball surveillance through year-end will resolve the market, with any undetected population introducing the main residual uncertainty.