Traders assign a 96.9% implied probability to “No” for a 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 because great earthquakes of that magnitude are statistically rare, with only four recorded since 1900 and none since the 2011 Tohoku event. USGS global seismicity records show that Mw 9.0+ events require specific conditions along major subduction zones, such as the Cascadia or Japan Trench, and current monitoring data reveal no elevated strain accumulation or foreshock sequences that would signal an imminent rupture within the remaining weeks of 2026. Historical recurrence intervals for such events span decades to centuries, placing the short-term odds extremely low. While sudden changes in seismic monitoring or an unexpected megathrust failure could theoretically shift probabilities, the absence of precursors and the brief time window reinforce the strong market consensus.