**Current NOAA Coral Reef Watch data show Main Hawaiian Islands under Bleaching Warning with only 0.1 Degree Heating Weeks and a modest 0.8°C HotSpot as of late September 2026, well below the Alert Level 1 threshold of 4 DHW.** This limited accumulated heat stress, despite a strengthening El Niño driving elevated equatorial Pacific temperatures, underpins the 75.5% market-implied probability of “No.” Regional sea-surface temperatures remain near or slightly above the 27°C maximum monthly mean, with no rapid intensification observed in recent satellite observations. Traders appear to weigh the short remaining window through December against typical seasonal cooling patterns and the time required for DHW to build to bleaching-risk levels, even as broader Pacific heat stress affects other archipelagos. Updated NOAA outlooks and weekly DHW trends will provide the next key signals for any late-year shift.