Anthropic’s targeted November 2026 IPO, with formal marketing eyed for the week of November 9 and trading potentially before Thanksgiving, forms the core driver of current market-implied odds. The company confidentially filed its S-1 in June and has shifted earlier October plans after seeking fuller third-quarter results. Its May 2026 Series H round valued it at $965 billion post-money, yet the prospectus signals ambitions above $2 trillion—more than double that level—on the back of revenue surging twelvefold to $4.6 billion in 2025. Offsetting this, net losses reached nearly $42 billion that year amid $7.33 billion in compute spending and $518 billion in forward infrastructure commitments. Backed by Amazon, Google, and others, the deal faces execution risks from regulatory scrutiny, market volatility, and competitive dynamics with OpenAI, while trader capital on Polymarket aggregates these probabilities ahead of the compressed timeline.