Recent hawkish Federal Reserve communications and sticky inflation have driven elevated term premiums, keeping the 10-year Treasury yield near 5.20% as of October 13 after retreating from multi-decade highs above 5.36% reached last week. Markets price only a low probability of a rate hike at the October 28 FOMC meeting but fully embed additional tightening later, reflecting resilient growth, a tight labor market with unemployment near 4.1%, and September CPI expected to rise to 3.6% year-over-year. The October 14 inflation release and subsequent data will shape near-term yield direction, while fiscal supply pressures and energy prices continue to support higher real yields versus historical norms.