Recent Fed policy tightening, including the September 2026 25 basis point hike to a 3.75-4.00% federal funds target range amid elevated inflation, has anchored 10-year Treasury yields near 5.22-5.24% as of early October—levels last seen in 2002. Persistent core inflation readings above 2%, heavy Treasury supply, resilient nominal growth from AI investment, and a wider term premium have limited downside in yields and shifted market-implied odds toward additional hikes by year-end. Traders are watching the October 14 CPI release and the October 27-28 FOMC meeting for signals on the pace of further tightening, which could determine whether yields test lower levels or remain elevated into 2027. Aggregated capital at risk on Polymarket reflects this higher-for-longer consensus.