**Market-implied odds favor a Pause-Hike-Pause sequence across the October 2026, December 2026, and January 2027 FOMC meetings at 63.5%.** This reflects the September 2026 dot plot and minutes, where officials unanimously supported the prior 25-basis-point hike to a 3.75–4.00% target range amid elevated inflation and solid growth, with 16 of 18 projecting at least one additional increase by year-end. Traders price a high likelihood of a hold at the late-October meeting—given proximity to elections and pending data—followed by a December hike when fresh projections arrive, then a pause in January. Recent futures and analyst commentary point to the federal funds rate peaking near 4.25–4.50% before stabilizing, with upcoming September CPI and labor-market releases serving as key near-term inputs to these probabilities.