Recent inflation data showing core PCE near 3% and headline at 3.4% through August, alongside resilient GDP growth near 2.3% and unemployment around 4.2%, have anchored trader expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening. The September FOMC's unanimous 25-basis-point hike to the 3.75-4.00% target range, paired with the median dot plot projecting a 4.1% federal funds rate by year-end 2026, positions one additional hike as the baseline path. Market-implied odds heavily favor two total 2026 hikes at 65.5%, reflecting the SEP's signal of policy normalization while acknowledging data dependence ahead of the October 28 and December meetings.