Trump’s appointment of Kevin Warsh as Fed chair in May 2026, combined with repeated public affirmations of confidence in him, underpins the 97.7% market-implied odds against any firing attempt this year. Despite the September FOMC’s unanimous 25-basis-point hike to the 3.75–4.00% federal funds target—defying White House calls for sub-1% rates—Trump has directed criticism at the broader board rather than Warsh personally, while pursuing separate removal efforts against Governor Lisa Cook. Warsh’s defense of the dual mandate and institutional independence has further stabilized the relationship. Tail risks remain if persistent inflation forces additional hikes into year-end or if debt-financing pressures intensify ahead of midterms, potentially testing the limits of presidential influence over the central bank.