Recent confirmation from Attorney General Todd Blanche that the Department of Justice will not reopen its criminal probe into former Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over headquarters renovation cost overruns underpins the 97.2% market-implied probability against incarceration before 2027. The Fed’s inspector general report found no reasonable grounds for criminal referral or administrative misconduct, despite citing oversight lapses that drove costs above $2 billion. Powell’s ongoing role as a Board governor through January 2028 occurs against a backdrop of closed grand jury subpoenas and judicial findings of insufficient evidence, reinforcing institutional norms around central bank independence. While political criticism from President Trump persists, any path to charges would require new verifiable evidence of federal crimes, a low-probability development given the exhaustive prior review and lack of supporting data.