Recent Focus survey revisions show economists now project the Selic rate at 13.25% by year-end 2026, down from 13.50%, consistent with two 25-basis-point cuts at the November 4 and December Copom meetings. Moderating GDP growth, resilient but cooling labor conditions, and hopes for fiscal tightening under a potential right-leaning administration have supported the easing path despite September IPCA inflation rising to 5.22% for the year. The BCB’s prior communications emphasized data dependence and a cautious pace after five consecutive quarter-point reductions that brought the policy rate to 13.75%. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects these fundamentals, pricing the 25-basis-point November move as the baseline outcome while assigning low odds to larger or reversal scenarios.