India’s September CPI inflation accelerated to a 23-month high of 5.54%, with food prices surging to 7.74%, reinforcing expectations for further monetary tightening at the Reserve Bank of India’s December 2–4 meeting. The RBI’s October 7 decision to raise the repo rate 25 basis points to 5.50% and adopt a calibrated tightening stance—its first hike in nearly four years—shifted the policy baseline, with the central bank projecting Q3 CPI at 6.0%. Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 65.5% implied probability to another 25-basis-point increase in December, versus 11.5% for 50 basis points or more and 20.5% for no change, reflecting resilient 7.1% GDP growth forecasts alongside upside inflation risks from food, commodities, and base effects ahead of the next data releases.