**Market-implied odds favor a 0.2% Core CPI month-over-month rise for September 2026 at 48.5%, with 0.3% at 33.5%.** This pricing reflects economist consensus that underlying inflation will moderate after August’s firmer 0.3% print, driven by mean-reversion in supercore services and a reversal of one-off gains such as telephone services. Forecasters including TD Securities project 0.20% core growth, citing softer core services, subdued shelter contributions, and only modest core goods pressure from vehicles, even as headline CPI faces an energy-driven lift. Recent August data showed core CPI at 2.4% year-over-year, the lowest since early 2021 in some measures, supporting expectations of contained momentum ahead of the October 14 release. Trader positioning embeds this baseline while assigning meaningful probability to a repeat of the prior month’s pace amid persistent service-sector resilience.