South African Reserve Bank projections and recent CPI prints underpin the 79.5% market-implied probability that the December 2026 year-over-year inflation rate will exceed 5.0%. Headline inflation rose to 5.0% in June before easing to 4.4% in August amid a fuel-price shock tied to Middle East supply disruptions and elevated transport costs. The central bank’s October Monetary Policy Review forecasts the headline rate averaging 4.4% for 2026 overall yet peaking above 5% through the second quarter of 2027, with core measures also firming. Traders therefore price in continued upward pressure through year-end, even as food inflation remains subdued near 1.1% and the rand has provided some offset. The next CPI release, due later this month, and the November MPC decision represent immediate catalysts that could reinforce or moderate these odds.