Market consensus for Brazil’s 2026 IPCA, as measured by the latest Focus survey, has edged higher to a 5.01% median after three consecutive weekly increases, driven by the September reading of 0.82% month-over-month that lifted the 12-month rate to 4.58%. Persistent pressures from food, housing, and administered prices, combined with a still-resilient labor market and external uncertainties, have kept full-year expectations above the 3% continuous inflation target’s upper tolerance bound of 4.5%. The Central Bank’s measured Selic easing to 13.75% and lowered 1.85% GDP growth forecast reflect caution, supporting trader positioning around the 5.00-5.49% range as the modal outcome while the 4.50-4.99% bucket captures scope for moderation if upcoming data soften.