Recent Mexico inflation data and analyst forecasts underpin the 60.5% market-implied odds for 2026 annual inflation settling in the 3.50–3.99% range. Headline CPI rose to 3.45% year-over-year in September from 3.26% in August, driven by non-core pressures including a sharp 8.78% jump in fruit and vegetable prices and faster energy costs, while core inflation eased to 3.75%. Private-sector economists polled by Banxico trimmed their end-2026 median forecast to 3.87%, reflecting contained demand pressures and the central bank’s decision to hold the policy rate at 6.50%. October CPI data due November 9 and the next Banxico meeting on November 5 remain key near-term catalysts that could shift the distribution of probabilities.