The Bank of Canada’s October 28 decision carries an 84.8% market-implied probability of no change at the current 2.25% overnight rate, reflecting a closely balanced but hold-leaning assessment. Persistent headline inflation near 3% in August, supported by elevated energy prices amid Middle East tensions, has prompted some institutions to shift forecasts toward a 25-basis-point hike, yet September’s sharp employment decline and broader growth concerns tied to trade policy have tempered those expectations. Core measures remain near the 2% target, giving the Bank room to monitor whether oil-driven pressures broaden before tightening. The September CPI release on October 19 and the accompanying Monetary Policy Report will serve as key inputs ahead of the announcement.