Canada’s August 2026 monthly GDP figure, scheduled for official release on October 30, carries a 47.5% market-implied probability of 0.2–0.3% MoM growth, reflecting Statistics Canada’s September 29 preliminary estimate of +0.2% after a flat July reading. This flash figure was driven by gains in mining, quarrying, and retail trade that offset declines in oil and gas extraction, consistent with a modest Q3 rebound following the 0.8% QoQ expansion in Q2. However, recent industry indicators—including softer manufacturing shipments, wholesale trade, and home resales—have introduced downside risks that support the 27.5% probability assigned to a 0.0–0.1% outcome. Traders are also pricing in potential revisions to the preliminary data and lingering effects from U.S. tariffs implemented in late August, which could weigh on goods-producing sectors.