Robust U.S. economic momentum, anchored by AI-driven business investment and resilient consumer spending, underpins the 98% market-implied probability against negative 2026 real GDP growth. Consensus forecasts from sources including the IMF and private economists project 2.1–2.3% annual expansion, with Q3 2026 nowcasts around 2.5–3.0% annualized amid a labor market near full employment (unemployment near 4.3%) and ongoing capital expenditure. Elevated energy prices from geopolitical tensions and Fed rate hikes to the 3.75–4.00% range have tempered but not derailed activity. Trader consensus reflects these data-driven baselines, though tail risks such as a sharp escalation in Middle East conflict or abrupt AI investment retrenchment could still pressure full-year outcomes into contraction territory.