Recent Canadian employment data showing a 68,300-job loss in September and a rise in the unemployment rate to 6.5% have tempered expectations for a Bank of Canada rate increase at the December 9 meeting, where the policy rate currently stands at 2.25%. This softening labor market, alongside moderating core inflation near the 2% target, supports trader consensus for no change at 52.5% implied probability. However, persistent upside risks to headline inflation from elevated oil prices and trade policy uncertainty—highlighted in the September policy statement—keep a 25-basis-point hike priced at 46%, creating a closely contested market. Key upcoming releases, including October inflation figures and the October 28 decision with updated projections, will likely clarify whether growth concerns or inflation pressures dominate the path to neutral policy.