Recent U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, fell 3.2 million barrels to 424.1 million barrels for the week ending October 2, 2026—one percent above the five-year seasonal average—after refinery crude runs rose and Gulf Coast stocks posted a sharp regional draw. This unexpected decline, against analyst forecasts for a build, reflects elevated refinery utilization near 93 percent alongside steady domestic production around 14 million barrels per day. Geopolitical supply disruptions and SPR releases have tightened global balances, supporting higher benchmark prices near $98 per barrel for WTI. The next EIA weekly report, due October 15, and subsequent releases through late October will determine whether further draws materialize before the October 30 resolution date.