**Market-implied odds heavily favor no change at Banxico’s November 5 meeting, with the 75.5% probability reflecting the board’s recent unanimous hold at 6.50% and data-dependent stance amid mixed inflation signals.** September headline inflation rose to 3.45% year-over-year, driven by non-core items such as food and energy, while core inflation eased further to 3.75%, extending its multi-month decline. Minutes from the September 24 decision revealed a dovish shift, including removal of explicit “hold” language and openness from three members to a potential 25 basis point cut if conditions support disinflation, though the balance of risks remains tilted upward and the target convergence is still projected for late 2027. Private-sector forecasts have been trimmed modestly for 2026–2027 inflation while growth expectations edged higher, reinforcing trader consensus around stability. Key near-term catalysts include the October inflation print and any Federal Reserve signals that could influence the peso and policy divergence.