The Bank of Israel’s October 21 decision occurs with the policy rate already at 3.25% after three consecutive 25-basis-point cuts through September, amid annual inflation holding near 1.5%—well inside the 1–3% target and below its midpoint. A strong shekel, subdued price pressures, and the central bank’s updated forecasts pointing toward a 3% terminal rate by mid-2027 have led traders to price an 81–90% probability of no change, as the committee has signaled it will proceed strictly on incoming data. Geopolitical risks and the October 27 elections add caution, while any further easing is viewed as more likely in November or later once the September CPI and fresh research-department projections are assessed.