Lula holds a commanding 98.1% implied probability of finishing first in Sergipe during the October 25 runoff, reflecting the state's position in the Northeast, where he secured over 62% in the October 4 first round against Flávio Bolsonaro's 30%. Recent state-level surveys from Quaest, Real Time Big Data, and AtlasIntel consistently showed Lula ahead by 26–34 points in second-round matchups, driven by established regional voting patterns favoring PT candidates and stronger local approval of his administration. Flávio Bolsonaro's 3.4% price aligns with his narrower support in the state despite national polling leads elsewhere. A late surge in turnout among conservative voters or unexpected campaign developments could narrow the gap, though historical margins in Sergipe make a reversal unlikely absent major shifts.