Mailza Assis (PP), the incumbent governor who assumed office in April 2026 after Gladson Cameli's departure, secured 49.76% in the first round on October 4 against Alan Rick (Republicanos) at 32.27%, advancing both to the October 25 runoff. Her victory across 19 of 22 municipalities and near-majority share established a strong base for consolidation of votes from eliminated candidates such as Tião Bocalom and Thor Dantas. Recent crossovers, including endorsements from Vanda Milani and Ilderlei Cordeiro plus alignment from 22 elected state and federal legislators, have reinforced her coalition ahead of the final vote. Traders price Mailza as the clear frontrunner with elevated odds on wider margins, reflecting her geographic reach and momentum, while low probability on a Rick win highlights the structural barriers for the challenger in a contest decided by turnout and late alliances.