The second round on October 25 pits Professora Dorinha (União Brasil) against Vicentinho Júnior (PSDB) after a first-round finish of 45.5% to 43.9%. Recent polling and a statistical model aggregating surveys show Dorinha ahead by roughly 2–5 points, consistent with historical patterns where the first-round leader has prevailed in prior Tocantins runoffs. Traders assign the highest probabilities to margins under 4 points for either candidate, reflecting the narrow gap, undecided voters from eliminated candidates, and the short campaign window before voting. Broader state dynamics, including national presidential trends favoring conservative candidates, add to the uncertainty around the final spread.