Flávio Bolsonaro secured first place in Tocantins during the October 4 first round with 50.44% of valid votes, ahead of incumbent Lula at 43.42%, advancing both to the October 25 runoff. Pre-election surveys in the state consistently showed the PL senator leading or tied in the first round and holding a clearer edge in head-to-head matchups, reflecting regional voter patterns favoring conservative candidates and the Liberal Party's organizational strength. This performance aligns with Flávio's wins across multiple northern and central-western states. Trader consensus at 98.5% for Flávio as second-round leader in Tocantins rests on these results, though shifts in turnout, targeted campaigning in the final weeks, or unexpected developments could still narrow the gap before ballots close.