Recent polling in the Distrito Federal governor race shows Celina Leão (PP) holding a 21-point lead over Leandro Grass (PT) ahead of the October 25 second round, with valid-vote estimates at 55-61% to 37-39%. This gap, built on her near-miss first-round result of 49.93% and stronger legislative alliances, positions margins of 20-25 points or larger as the most probable outcomes among traders. Grass victory odds remain minimal given consistent survey trends and limited undecided voters. The elevated price on "Other" reflects uncertainty over turnout shifts, late campaign dynamics, or precise final spread within the resolution window.