**Traders see an 78.5% chance Alexandre de Moraes remains on Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court because impeachment faces steep procedural and political barriers.** The Senate requires a two-thirds majority (54 of 81 votes) to remove a justice, and the chamber president controls whether petitions advance. Dozens of impeachment requests have been filed amid a September 2026 scandal involving alleged messages with a detained banker and internal court disputes, yet none have moved forward. The newly elected Senate includes a larger bolsonarista bloc, but the process would begin only in 2027, after any runoff and Senate leadership vote. Historical precedent shows no STF justice has ever been removed this way, and Moraes continues issuing rulings, including recent enforcement actions against Bolsonaro family members. Any shift would depend on the presidential outcome and Senate president’s stance.