Flávio Bolsonaro’s commanding position in Brazil’s 2026 presidential runoff against incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has driven trader expectations for an early pardon or amnesty. The Liberal Party’s strong congressional gains after the first round have revived prospects for legislative amnesty before the new president takes office on January 5, 2027, while Flávio has repeatedly stated that a presidential pardon would be among his first acts. Jair Bolsonaro remains under house arrest serving a lengthy sentence for coup-related convictions, and multiple legal and political avenues—court review, congressional action, or executive clemency—could resolve before the March 31, 2027 deadline. These developments underpin the current 82.5% implied probability for a Yes outcome.