**Flávio Bolsonaro’s strong first-round performance in Brazil’s 2026 presidential election has raised expectations that he will win the October 25 runoff against incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and then quickly grant his father a presidential pardon or support a congressional amnesty.** Jair Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year sentence for coup-related offenses and remains under house arrest. As the Liberal Party (PL) candidate and frontrunner, Flávio has pledged an indulto (pardon) as one of his first acts after inauguration on January 5, 2027, and allies are advancing amnesty legislation in Congress, where the party gained significant seats. A pending STF review of the conviction offers another potential path. These developments, combined with the March 31, 2027, resolution window, underpin the current trader consensus reflected in the 81% implied probability for a pardon or equivalent measure.