Post-election coalition negotiations following Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset vote remain the dominant factor keeping probabilities clustered across numerous contenders for the National Security portfolio. Current Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit party faces internal right-wing tensions, including exclusion from recent Likud-led conferences and competing demands over portfolios, while broader scenarios involving figures like Gadi Eisenkot or centrist parties add uncertainty. Traders assign the highest share to no appointment by late February, reflecting expectations of prolonged bargaining before Knesset approval of any new government. Election seat totals, surplus-vote agreements, and explicit coalition pacts on ministerial roles could quickly consolidate support around specific candidates or extend the timeline further.