Omar Aziz (PSD) advanced from the October 4 first round with 40.6% statewide, ahead of Professora Maria do Carmo (PL) at 24.5%, after dominating 53 municipalities while she carried only Manaus, Humaitá, and Apuí. This geographic split and Aziz’s interior strength have shaped trader views on runoff margins ahead of the October 25 vote. Pre-first-round surveys showed Aziz competitive or leading in head-to-head scenarios, with limited post-round polling leaving room for shifts from eliminated candidates’ supporters or capital turnout. The distribution across Aziz victory margins and the sizable “other” share reflects uncertainty over whether his first-round edge holds or narrows in the decisive round.