Lula maintains a commanding lead in Alagoas for the October 25 runoff, backed by first-round results showing 54.73% of valid votes against Flávio Bolsonaro’s 40.45%, alongside consistent pre-election surveys placing the incumbent between 50% and 58% in head-to-head matchups. Regional patterns in the Northeast, combined with Lula’s approval ratings near 58-59% and Flávio Bolsonaro’s rejection levels above 55%, underpin trader consensus on the outcome. Other tested names, including Augusto Cury and Ronaldo Caiado, register minimal support. While a late swing in turnout or campaign momentum could narrow margins, the scale of the current advantage leaves limited realistic paths for reversal before the vote count concludes.