Flavio Bolsonaro’s first-round performance in Minas Gerais, where he secured 48.2% to Lula’s 43.3% on October 4, anchors trader expectations for the October 25 runoff. The state’s bellwether status, combined with Liberal Party gains in gubernatorial and legislative races there and nationally, has reinforced momentum for the right-wing candidate. Recent national polls showing Flavio ahead by five to six points among valid votes, along with consolidation of first-round right-leaning support, have further elevated implied probabilities. Late developments that could narrow the gap include shifts in turnout among key demographics, additional endorsements from centrist parties, or unexpected economic or legal news in the final two weeks.