Lula holds a dominant position to finish first in Ceará during the October 25 second round, reflecting consistent polling leads of 60% or higher against Flávio Bolsonaro and the president's 63% first-round share in the state. Ceará's alignment with PT governance, including the recent re-election of Governor Elmano de Freitas, reinforces this edge through established voter bases in the Northeast. Local campaign efforts target over 70% support, leveraging alliances and turnout patterns typical of the region. While national momentum for the challenger or unexpected shifts in voter priorities could narrow margins, structural factors in Ceará make a reversal unlikely absent major late developments.