Brazil’s Senate has never approved impeachment of a Supreme Federal Court justice despite more than 100 pending petitions, and the chamber’s current leadership has consistently declined to advance them. The new Senate, with at least 49 lawmakers aligned toward removal, takes office only in 2027 and still falls five votes short of the 54 required for conviction. Recent internal court disputes and electoral gains by conservative forces have intensified calls for reform and accountability, yet procedural barriers, historical precedent, and the timeline for Senate organization sustain trader consensus that no removal will occur before the end of 2026. A sudden shift in Senate leadership or an unforeseen procedural maneuver in the remaining months could theoretically alter the outlook, though both remain remote.