Celina Leão (PP), the incumbent governor of Brazil’s Federal District, entered the second-round runoff on October 25 after capturing 49.93% of valid votes in the October 4 first round, just short of an outright win. Recent Datafolha and Quaest surveys show her leading challenger Leandro Grass (PT) by 18–20 points among valid votes, supported by 55% government approval and consolidation of center-right and evangelical support. Traders assign her 98.7% implied probability due to this consistent polling edge and structural advantages as the sitting executive. A narrow upset remains possible only if turnout collapses sharply among her base or unforeseen late developments alter voter sentiment before the runoff.