Recent national polls, including Datafolha, CNT/MDA, and Quaest from mid-October, show Flávio Bolsonaro and President Lula da Silva in a technical tie or with Flávio holding a narrow edge of 1-3 points in valid votes ahead of the October 25 runoff, well within margins of error. First-round results left roughly 8% of votes with eliminated candidates, whose consolidation remains uncertain and could shift the final margin. Regional patterns—Flávio’s strength in the South and Southeast versus Lula’s Northeast base—along with comparable rejection rates and rising undecided or blank ballots sustain the tight contest. These factors keep trader probabilities concentrated on sub-4% or 4-8% victories for Flávio or other outcomes, as small turnout or persuasion shifts among moderates could determine the exact result.