Lula holds a modest edge in Amazonas for the October 25 presidential runoff after securing 48% to Flávio Bolsonaro’s 45% in the state’s first-round results, a narrower margin than some national polls had projected. Recent local surveys, including Quaest and PoderData, show the candidates statistically tied or separated by just a few points, reflecting persistent polarization and the influence of state-level alliances such as support for gubernatorial frontrunner Omar Aziz. Bolsonaro’s stronger performance in other northern and southern regions has not fully translated here, where local incumbency ties and turnout patterns among key voting blocs continue to shape expectations. The tight national contest and limited endorsements from eliminated first-round candidates keep the outcome sensitive to final-week mobilization and any shifts in undecided voters.