Omar Aziz (PSD) advanced to the October 25 runoff as the clear frontrunner after capturing 40.63% in the October 4 first round, ahead of Professora Maria do Carmo (PL) at 24.49% and Roberto Cidade (União) at 21.91%. Mid-October surveys, including Quaest and PoderData, show Aziz leading the head-to-head by 12–16 points among valid votes, reflecting his stronger performance across 53 municipalities and established name recognition from prior terms as governor and senator. Maria do Carmo’s support remains concentrated in Manaus and a few interior cities but has not narrowed the gap in statewide polling. Lower-priced candidates failed to reach the runoff or registered negligible support, leaving trader consensus focused on Aziz’s structural advantages heading into the final vote.