The extremely high probability assigned to the regime remaining in power through October 31 reflects the short remaining window and the absence of immediate triggers for rapid collapse. Recent U.S.-Israeli strikes, the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and intensified sanctions have damaged military and economic capacity, yet Iranian leadership structures remain intact with security forces suppressing dissent and nationalist sentiment helping consolidate support. Ongoing protests and economic hardship have not produced organized, nationwide momentum capable of toppling the system within days. U.S. intelligence assessments align with this view of no imminent fall. A sudden escalation in coordinated internal unrest, decisive military reversals, or elite-level fracture could still shift outcomes before the deadline, though current reporting shows no such developments materializing.